Ankara (Caasimada Online) – The third phase of mediation talks between Somalia and Ethiopia, known as the Ankara Process, has been postponed indefinitely.

Initially set to take place on September 17, the talks were deferred without an official explanation from either side.

The mediation, which aims to address growing tensions between the two neighboring countries, was facilitated by Türkiye. Despite the delay, Türkiye remains committed to its role as a neutral mediator in the ongoing conflict between Somalia and Ethiopia.

The Ankara Process was initiated earlier this year to facilitate dialogue between Somalia and Ethiopia, two nations grappling with long-standing conflicts.

The mediation efforts are part of Türkiye’s broader foreign policy strategy in Africa, where it has sought to position itself as a key diplomatic player.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has personally invested in these efforts, engaging Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali and Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud in discussions to achieve a peaceful resolution.

Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali formally requested Türkiye’s assistance in mediating the conflict with Somalia in May.

Shortly thereafter, Somalia also reached out to Türkiye for support. President Erdogan, in response, tasked Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan with leading the diplomatic efforts to address the escalating crisis.

The first round of talks was held on July 1 in Ankara, where Ethiopian Foreign Minister Taye Atske Selassie and Somali Minister of Foreign Affairs Ahmed Moalim Fiqi met to discuss the way forward.

The initial meeting concluded with both parties expressing a mutual commitment to peaceful dialogue.

Postponement and speculation

The second round of mediation talks was initially scheduled for September 2, but after high-level consultations, the date was pushed back to September 17. However, the talks have been postponed indefinitely, with no new date announced.

While no official reason has been provided for the delay, some sources suggest that it may be related to the recent deployment of Egyptian troops to Somalia, adding another layer of complexity to the already fragile situation.

There are also speculations that the postponement might be linked to recent statements by Somalia’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, Ahmed Moalim Fiqi.

During an interview with Universal TV on September 12, Fiqi hinted that Somalia might consider supporting rebel groups in Ethiopia if the Ethiopian government continues to pursue its agreement with Somaliland. His remarks have sparked concern about the potential for further escalation in the region.

Somaliland agreement strains relations

The current tensions between Somalia and Ethiopia revolve around the agreement signed between Ethiopia and the self-declared Republic of Somaliland in January 2024.

Somaliland declared independence from Somalia in 1991 and has been seeking international recognition ever since. While Somaliland operates as an autonomous state, its independence has not been recognized by any country, including Somalia.

Under the terms of the agreement, Ethiopia pledged to recognize Somaliland’s independence in exchange for leasing 20 kilometers of Somaliland’s coastline to be used as a naval base for the next 50 years.

This deal has angered Somalia, which views it as infringing its sovereignty. From Somalia’s perspective, Somaliland remains part of its territory, and any agreements involving Somaliland must be made with the Somali government, not with a breakaway region.

In response to the agreement, Fiqi warned that Somalia might take drastic measures if Ethiopia proceeds with the deal.

“We have not reached that stage, but it’s a path open to us,” Fiqi said, hinting that Somalia could align itself with Ethiopian rebel groups if the situation escalates.

He emphasized, however, that Somalia still hopes for a peaceful resolution, but the option to support rebels remains on the table if Ethiopia continues to infringe on Somalia’s territorial integrity.

Rebel support: A possible turning point

Fiqi’s comments about possibly supporting Ethiopian rebels have raised eyebrows across the region. When explicitly asked about Somalia’s potential to back the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), a group that fought a two-year war against Ethiopia until a ceasefire agreement was reached in November 2022, Fiqi responded cautiously.

He acknowledged that the Somali government had discussed the matter. However, he noted that the collapse of Ethiopia is not in Somalia’s or the Horn of Africa’s interest.

Despite this measured response, the possibility of Somalia supporting Ethiopian rebel factions remains a concern for regional stability. If Somalia were to take such a step, it could reignite internal conflicts within Ethiopia, further destabilizing the Horn of Africa.

Ethiopia has responded harshly to Somalia’s veiled threats. Nebiyu Tedla, Ethiopia’s deputy permanent representative to the African Union and the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa, dismissed Fiqi’s remarks as inflammatory.

In a post on X (formerly Twitter), Nebiyu mocked Somalia’s government, suggesting that they are “al-Shabab agents posing as government officials” and accused them of stoking nationalism from a position of weakness.

His comments underscore the deepening divide between the two countries despite years of cooperation in fighting the al-Shabab militant group and other regional challenges.